Global Themes

The Calm Before the Storm

  • Tory Backbenchers cause a threat to May's Brexit plan
  • Trump's first Non-farm shows solid gains
  • Merkel to Meet Trump

Brexit

Tory backbenchers cause a threat to May's Brexit plan
May is heading into a showdown with her backbenchers as she sets out the terms of her Brexit plan even before she opens talk with the EU officials.

Critic’s within May's own party, will voice their concerns this week and the PM looks set out a plan for her Brexit plan. With the House of Lords having voted for Parliament to have the final say in the manner the Government handles the divorce negotiations. Today we could see a potential spanner in the works for May, as The House of Commons is set to vote over whether to accept the amendments by the House of Lords.

Keen to keep flexibility with the divorce negotiations, a loss for the Government could cause restrictions and delay to the triggering of Article 50. If successful in her vote, the triggering of Article 50 could be as soon as Tuesday. Many would ask why she would look to act so quickly with still such uncertainty and rumours the government has yet to come up with any real plan for a ‘No Deal’. 

US Non-Farms

Trump's First Non-Farms shows solid gains
On Friday we saw Donald Trump's first Non-Farm payrolls figure come out above expectation at 235,000.

Analysts have stated the strong start to the labour market in 2017 has been down to warmer weather helping to provide a boost to employment in the construction industry. The strong figure is expected to boost the confidence of Fed as we move ever closer to Wednesday's interest rate decision and ‘Quarterly Update’. Trump on the another hand was active on twitter as he praised the strong figure by tweeting ‘GREAT AGAIN +235,000’.

US Unemployment now stands at low 4.7% and with strong wage growth at 2.8%, the US labour market is performing well at the start of 2017.  Research analysts at Moody's have claimed the US economy is fast approaching full employment. 

Leaders Meet

On Tuesday we will see Donald Trump meet Merkel, as the two leaders meet for the first time. Governments from all around the world will look to see if there are any clues about the future of this transatlantic alliance.

Trump has already met many of the other country’s leaders such a Theresa May and Japan's Shinzo Abe. Merkel may not have been a priority meeting for Donald Trump but there have already been many comments between the two. Merkel has already warned Trump that a proposed overhaul of taxes in the US could be met with tariff retaliation from Germany. These comments followed a Trump statement, that the US could impose a tariff on German imported cars. With Germany currently running a 50 billion trade surplus with the US, any kind of trade between the two nations could create negative effects for both US and the EU. 




Deliver the Daily Currency Market Analysis to my Inbox

Published five days a week, this newsletter provides day-to-day trends and activities affecting the market in easy-to-understand snapshots.